Saturday, August 25, 2018

Tight inventories, increasing demand, prices up, seller’s market in Los Angeles Residential Real Estate


 Los Angeles Housing Market Heading Into 2019 – More of the Same

The LA housing market is not heading toward disaster, no matter what the headlines are saying. If you spend five minutes reading the what is actually said in articles like “Southern California home sales crash, a warning sign to the nation,” you’ll soon see that the writers can’t support their crazy headlines.

The articles actually say you’ll find that respected sources say that the LA market is 500,000 housing units short of what is needed, and that this is concentrated in so called “affordable” homes and apartments for rent or purchase. Nobody has figured out how to create more land to build these sorely needed units, so LA will take years to catch up, if ever. 

There is available land in the Inland Empire, and that is where affordable housing is being built. As fast as it is built, LA and OC residents are moving out to buy it.

Within LA County, the only way to add units is to tear down and increase density. This only happens at a snail’s pace due to limited properties being offered for sale, and layer upon layer of city, county, regional, and state hurdles to jump through after the property is acquired.

Will the exodus of residents heading to the IE and beyond (Las Vegas, Phoenix, Dallas) ever actually impact the housing prices in LA? Possibly, but so far, the lure of weather, entertainment, sports teams, and high paying jobs is keeping folks in LA. You can move to Riverside and get a lot of house for the money, but the IE is becoming the distribution capital of the US, and warehouses don’t use much labor or pay much for the labor they do use.

Meanwhile, LA has become a huge draw for the wealthy and well paid. The entertainment, high tech, health care, and finance sectors are drawing folks from Northern California, Seattle, Hong Kong, China, Korea, India, and Europe. They are arriving with cash and are competing for available properties.

Here is one caveat. The number of new arrivals from China has dropped off. This may be due to a slightly softer Chinese economy, the tariff situation, or other issues. But word on the street says there is reduced competition in some LA markets that seems to be related to fewer mainland Chinese vying for scarce inventory.

What about the other headlines declaring that prices are easing, homes are staying on the market longer, not as many offers, more sellers cutting prices. Once again you need to dig. All four of these markers have been so high for so long that they had to come down. The amounts they are coming down is a percent or two. People are cutting the asking prices from the ridiculous to something just less ridiculous.

Where are we in the bubble? We are just now hitting prices from the 2006 highs in the “affordable” neighborhoods These are actual, not inflation adjusted prices. Some are still slightly below. Based on historical patterns we could have 40% upside left before a bubble could be declared. But if prices only continued to track inflation for the next several years, it is likely we would see 3% average increases year after year.

What about a recession? Everyone agrees that there will be a recession at some point. In order for the housing market in LA to go lower, you need more inventory. It will not come from new units. It can only come from people moving away from the county, people doubling up, or boomers finally moving to retirement villas. If we endure a normal two quarter recession, it seems unlikely that there will be any impact on LA real estate.

What about mortgage interest rates? As long as we stay under 6% or so, there is likely to be enough elasticity in the market to absorb the hit. If we have several factors impacting all at once, then we could see a drop in prices.

For instance, imagine that the World has a year-long recession, drying up money from Asia. Maybe the US has a six-month recession, driving up the unemployment numbers to 6%. The final leg in the stool could be interest rates at 7%. In this case, you are likely to see the historical 30% drop in home prices for a year, followed by seven more years of prices going up. 

 Mortgage rates? They are up from the crazy days, but they are still way under historic averages. The latest from the fed would suggest that rates are going to stay moderate as long as inflation is under control. 

When is the perfect time to sell your home? When is the perfect market to buy a new or upgraded home? It is not a good idea to try and time the market. The best thing you can do is make your decisions based on your needs. Do you need to buy a different home to handle a growing household, or just because you’d like a nicer home or a better neighborhood? Call Bill Rayman today and lay out your hopes and dreams. No better time to start looking than right now.

Call Bill Rayman at (424) 354-5325

 

 


Thursday, July 26, 2018

Will $120 a Month Kill the Deal on a $1,000,000 Home Purchase – Interest Rate Facts






Morgage interest rates are going up. We have finally come to the end of the amazing and historically unique time when mortgage interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgages hovered around 4%, even dropping to under 3.5% for a while. This aberration did not result In a massive influx of new home purchases or of new home building. The reasons for this are many and varied, but while the US enjoyed these rates, the main benefactors were existing homeowners who refinanced.

Simultaneously, the lack of new residential construction and the inclination for seniors to age-in-place, created shortages in available homes and apartments to buy or rent, driving prices and rents up rapidly.

Now the pundits and some in the real estate industry are panicking over the interest rate increases, with mortgage interest in the late Spring of 2018 reaching over 4.75%. In the historical context, these rates are still very low. To give a bit of context:



From 1900 – 1967 rates were narrowly confined between 5% and 6%, except for a brief time at the end of WWII.

From 1967 – 2007 Rates ran up starting in 1967 all the way through the housing bubble bust of 2007. During this period rates were well above 6%, climbing as high as 17% in the credit crisis of 1982.



2007 – 2018. The housing bust, bank debacle, great recession combination drove mortgage interest rates to unimagined lows for over a decade. With the economy getting stronger, the Fed has seen fit to increase Fed Funds Rates and is starting to sell off assets purchased to keep the economy from crashing. The net intended affect is to send all interest rates higher to stave off potential inflation above the Fed goal of 2% annually.



Thus far in the 2018, we’ve seen rates increases that the headlines have described as the fastest increases in history. There seems to be some panic around all this. However, there is every reason to believe that rates will eventually settle into the 5%-6% range that seems to “normal” outside of extenuating circumstances. 

Will we have extenuating circumstances? Who can know? The primary driver of mortgage interest rates is bond interest rates and Federal Reserve rates. Some would argue that we have a bond bubble caused by massive borrowing in the government and public spheres. If that we to bust, we could see bond rates go much higher. Very few are expecting that in the near term.

The economy could accelerate out of control, creating inflation, and Federal Reserve efforts to slow the economy down using higher interest rates. It is hard to find anyone predicting economic growth above 4%, and most seem to agree that the economy could grow quite a bit without serious inflation.

What does all this mean to the average citizen who owns a home or is contemplating purchasing a home?

The big worry is that higher interest rates means that the cost of ownership goes up. But while every decision about purchasing can be affected by small incremental changes, the increases here would seem unlikely to do much damage in the overheated real estate market.

As noted in the headline, each increase in the interest rate of 0.25%, from say 4.5% to 4.75% will increase the payment on a $500,000 home by $60 a month or about 0.025% of the payment of $2450 (including property tax, insurance, etc.) Another way to look at it is that the increase of an entire 1% will increase the payment by $240.
If this buyer was maxed out on their ability to pay, either by their own budgeting or by the mortgage underwriting, they would need to drop their expectations to a home of about $450,000. For the first time homebuyer this could be an issue and could drive down prices by some amount.

However, a huge part of the market right now is all cash deals, high-roller tech employees, and homeowners looking to move up or down. The first group has high incomes, the second group has flexibility regarding down payments. Having said this it would be pollyannaish to think that a 1% or more move will have no force in home pricing.

The mitigating forces that are likely to keep home prices moving up

Demand is high, increasing, and likely to continue to increase.
Supply is low, decreasing, and unlikely to increase compared to supply
Current home prices have not retaken 2007 levels when adjusting for inflation.

If you’d like to review the details of those three assertions, please go here.

Assuming those three statements to be true, the upward force on prices has been at the rate of about 7% per year. A ballpark guess might be that the interest rate increases might slow that in half for a couple of years. But there’s one more mitigating force that needs to be considered.

People tend to panic, and the panic in this case would cause folks to try and get the today rate at 4.75% before it goes to 5%, and under one theory of investing, they would be correct. This theory assumes that to the extent that you wish to own, and that you intend to own for many years into the future, even if you sell and buy one or more times in your life, what you pay to make your initial purchase will not be that consequential.

Moreover, if interest rates continue up and home prices, too, you’ll be thrilled at your decision. If interest rates drop in the future, you can refinance. If home prices drop, you only lose if you sell and don’t repurchase at an equally deflated price.

Final recommendation

If you want to own your own home, or if you want to buy a different residence, don’t fret the price or the interest rate. Make the wisest decision regarding your needs, the neighborhood, and your ability to pay. The rest will sort itself out over time. 

To learn more about current rates or to arrange for a fully underwritten mortgage prior to looking for a home, call Bill Rayman today at (424) 354-5325












-->



One sage said: “It is easier to save money than it is to make more.” That may or may not be the case for you, but if you follow the steps below, I can pretty much guarantee you that you will save at least $250 a month and maybe $500 or more. How many more hours would you have to work each month to make that much? How much more house could you afford? What would it do for your credit report.

  1. Get rid of recurring charges you don’t need anymore – Go through every bank statement and every credit card statement. Look for recurring charges that you have forgotten about from online resources, magazine drives, newspaper subscriptions, and more. We’ll assume you find one of these at $10 a month. You might find way more.
  2. Call your cable TV provider. Tell them you are considering going off grid or switching to satellite. If you have satellite, call the provider and tell them you are thinking of switching to cable. Watch the dance begin. You are very likely to end up with at least $20 or more in savings. Now call the competition with your new rate and see what they will do. You are likely to end up with the same or better rate and some kind of promotional money or free stuff for switching.
  3. Go off the grid on cable. Between Apple TV, Hulu, NetFlicks, RedBox, Amazon Prime, and other TV offers, it is hard to justify any upgrades to basic service on cable or satellite. The savings for getting off of cable could easily be $50 or more.
  4. On to your cell phone, internet, and land line providers. This gets a bit more complicated, but the cost of all of this is dropping fast. By changing providers, bundling, unbundling, and just shopping, you are very likely to end up saving another $30 a month and improving MBPS. Recently I tried to end my land line service, but the bundle cost less with it that without. 
  5. Saving on your utilities. The water company (at least in California) will be happy to help you cut down your water use. Check with your supplier to find out how to get free or reduced costs products to reduce use in bathrooms and irrigation. Then check to see what the recommended water needs are for your yard. The electric company will help you with lighting and other ways to save on electricity. LED lights are fantastic and save a huge amount of money. Switch appliances to natural gas to save even more. Saving $25 or more per month for these changes should be a cinch.
  6. Budget. Keep a penny by penny ledger of all expenses for three months. There are many online tools that can help with this process. Once you see where the money is going, you will almost certainly be able to find ways to cut that won't hurt even a little bit. We’ll put this down as $25.
  7. Shop your car insurance. We have 4 drivers on the policy, so your results may vary. Don’t forget to check Costco or AAA. It is not unusual to save $100 or more. You should also review your other insurance policies annually to make sure you have the coverage you need, and to see about savings on rates. Life insurance is another very likely savings point.
  8. Speaking of Costco. The savings by purchasing your groceries and other items at Costco are real and significant. Costco marks up all items by 15%. What they buy for $10.00, you pay only $11.50.  Most discount department stores mark up 50% to $100.  So you would pay $15.00 - $20.00. I know you have to buy huge quantities. Find nooks all over the house for storing commodities. Buy and extra freezer. A one-time small cost for huge savings. Multiple online sources report Costco as cheaper than Walmart, Sam’s, and Amazon Prime. Imagine the savings compared to your local chain market. Potential savings of at least $25 per month per person.
  9. Amazon Prime. When it isn't a Costco item, why not buy on Amazon Prime?!? Pricey toothpaste, supplements, household items and more are almost always cheaper on Amazon than at Target or CVS. And there is no freight and no auto expense. When you need more, you have a record of what you bought. Savings of another $10 per person per month.
  10. Get rid of any high interest credit card. Use the savings from these other suggestions to first pay off all credit cards with interest rates higher than your mortgage interest rate. The only good use for a credit card is to build credit. Pay them off every month. Or get an interest free credit card and transfer all balances into the interest free card. If you owe $10,000 on credit cards that charge interest and you put this on an 18 month no interest card, you’ll pay 3% for the transfer ($300) and save at least $1800 if you pay the card off in the 18 months for a savings of $100 a month. Most families will save at least $25 per month. If you owe more than that, try a credit union for a low interest loan. If you owe a lot more, consider a HELOC.
  11. Take your lunch to work. Eating out a lunch is expensive and usually not great for your waistline. A normal lunch your make at home will cost under $2.50. Savings of $100 a month and maybe 10,000 calories.
  12. We promised not to suggest changes to lifestyle, but if you want to add another huge amount of savings, get rid of one expensive, useless or worse, habit. Smoking, buying booze in bars, daily Starbucks, fast food, gambling (including lotto.)  This could be the biggest savings of all. An expense of just $10 per day is $300 a month.

We would love to hear from you in the comments. How much did you save? What will you do with the savings. If you are interested in purchasing residential real estate for any purpose, primary home, second home, investments, or some combination, Bill Rayman can help you secure the exactly appropriate mortgage for your needs. Call Bill now at (424) 354-5325

Monday, September 4, 2017

Five Ways You Can Afford a Million Dollar Home in Los Angeles


 

West LA Homes - Million Dollars and Up - What You'll Need to Live There

If you live in DTLA or anywhere west of downtown, and you are currently paying rent or own a home in a neighborhood you want to get out of. Or if you need more room. You need to get used to the fact that a quality home or condo in a good neighborhood is going to cost you a million bucks. We have shown here and here why these prices are unlikely to decrease anytime soon, and we’ve shown here why buying is much better than renting (assuming the same quality home and neighborhood.

What will it take to get that $1m dollar home, and how can you start planning now to make that purchase?

What income do you need to qualify for an $800,000 mortgage?

The standard down payment for any home purchase is 20%. Therefore, if you are buying a $1M home, you’ll need $200,000 down. That means you will need to qualify for an $800,000 mortgage. Clearly, you can pay more down, and your payments will be less, therefore making it easier to qualify. You can also put less than 20% down, but then your monthly payments will go up and you will need to pay an additional amount for PMI (premium mortgage insurance) through the FHA or through private insurance providers.

For this illustration, we’ll assume the standard situation. At 4% interest, the total cost including taxes and insurance will be approximately $5700 per month. The recommended income for this type of loan is $240,000. With outstanding credit, you might be able to slide by at $207,000.

If you were to eliminate all other debt, including car debt, you might be able to qualify with an income of $170,000. The range of the ratio acceptable today is an income equal to 28% to 41% of payments on debts + property taxes + home owner’s insurance + PMI.

Step one would include getting enough income and low enough debt to qualify. How can you get the requisite income? Your personal earnings plus your spouse’s earning, and/or the earnings of any individual who will live on the premises and is willing to sign on the mortgage. Keep in mind that their credit score must also qualify.

How do you get rid of debt? You will need to do these things well in advance of making the purchase:

·      Sell the expensive car and get by with a less expensive car or other transportation method.
·      Cut back on expenses to make large payments on credit card or other debt. The lower transportation cost will already help. You can get rid of cable TV, eating out, coffee out, and alcohol, not to mention cigarettes. Then review internet and miscellaneous expenses. Generally, you’ll find at least $500 per month that can be eliminated for a while or forever.
·      Who might “give” you the money to eliminate your debt or part of it. If you are already counting on these donations to help with the down payment, you may not be able to double dip here. On the other hand, the elimination of debt will lower the down payment needed, so would often be the better strategy.
·      Liquidate assets such as pension plans, savings, investments, or collections. Keep in mind that taking funds out of pensions will result in penalties if you are under 65.

What If I can do all the above, but I can’t generate $170,000 in income? For many individuals that are looking to buy a $1M home, they are selling a home in the process. The sale of the home may create more down payment, thus reducing the needed income. Each additional $100,000 in down payment reduces the monthly payment by $550, and therefore reduces the income needed by about $20,000 per year. In the case where you have high credit scores and no debt, the income needed on a $700,000 loan would drop to $150,000.

Alternatively, you might be able to rent out the property you now own. Any profit you can show on that rental would increase your income. However, you will need to show that you are a competent property manager and/or hire one, and you’ll need a lease in place.

I have the income, but not the down payment

You can buy a home with as little as 3% down, but most mortgage companies would like to see at least 5% down. This also allows you to use private mortgage insurance, which generally has many benefits compared to FHA.

Obviously as the mortgage amount goes up, the monthly payment goes up. You will pay about $550 per month more for a $900,000 mortgage compared to an $800,000 mortgage. In addition, you will pay PMI of around $300-$500 per month. If we use $1000 per month additional payment total, then the income necessary to afford the loan becomes closer to $275,000 per year, but could be as low as $200,000 with outstanding credit and no debt.









Tuesday, August 22, 2017

Detailed 2018 Forecast on Housing Market and Interest Rates


The housing market, interest rate, and economy all remain vital cogs in the machine.


For 2018, it's time to start looking at how the year will shape up and what's coming America's way. Will the economy falter leading to a housing market crash or is it going to sustain itself? This article is going to provide a clear-cut forecast for 2018 based on underlying factors.

This is a detailed look at what will take place, how the market is responding right now, and how it will impact the economy in its entirety.

Housing Market Will Remain Firm

The housing market provides hints as to the general economy and how it's doing. 2017 has been a decent year as the economy continues to grow and 2018 appears to be looking positive. The housing market tends to remain strong because people buy and sell houses unless the bottom falls out.

In this regard, the real estate market should sustain itself and stand firm at the very least.

Interest Rates Expected To Move Upwards

What about the interest rates?

The interest rates saw a sudden increase during the election season as it wavered with each swing between Trump and Clinton. While election season is in the past and a bit of stability has come in the White House, a lot of clarity has also made its way into the picture.

The interest rates have been around 3.5%-4.25%.

However, 2018 is going to add a new wrinkle into the mix as rates will likely rise. According to economists, rates might balloon up to 4.75-5.75%. Most of these decisions are based on the 30-year treasury bond yield, and they are sitting at 3%

If treasuries increase to 4% or more, the mortgage interest rate should rise to around 4.75%-5.75% as mentioned.

Bullish Economy

What about the economy? This can become a meaningful indicator for the housing market. If the economy starts heading in the right direction, housing is likely to follow.

Signs remain strong heading into 2018. Most economists are stating the economy will grow making 2018 a good time to invest in residential real estate.


Saturday, July 1, 2017

Mortgage Interest Rates Defy Expectations – Five Reasons Rates Remain at Historic Lows


 

Can you count on mortgage interest rates to remain low for the next year?

With the country experiencing “Full employment,” Fed rates up 2X in 2017 with more expected increases to come, the stock market flying ever upward, we see mortgage interest rates drop.
At the beginning of 2017 and through the first quarter, pretty much every pundit has predicted increases in mortgage rates.

So which way will they go in the rest of 2017 and into 2018? Is this a good time to buy a house, given the high prices and low interest rates?

Here are the five key things effecting interest rates. You might also be able to use an understanding of the trends related to these five factors to help predict the future:



1.     Bonds are the key:  As is obvious by this chart, both 15 and 30 year mortgage interest rates move almost exactly with treasuries. And since treasuries are basically risk free, the premium for a mortgage is based on higher risk with 30 year being more risky than z 15 year. As treasuries move, mortgage rates move. 

2.     Inflation matters: Treasuries and other bonds track very closely with inflation. When investors risk capital, they want a “real” return. That is, they want to be compensated for lending their money at a rate something above inflation. To get $1.02 next year for $1.00 invested this year isn’t smart if the cost of living makes that $1.02 only worth last year’s $1.00. As you can see on the chart, inflation tracks with treasuries and all long term bonds.
3.     Investment options: This is a more difficult item to measure. But consider this. 50 years ago, an investor was probably deciding between real estate, commodities, stocks, and bonds. Today, that same investor has dozens of countries around the world offering bonds, and thousands of companies worldwide offering stocks and bonds. In addition, you are more likely to buy a property in a foreign land.  With all those options, the buyer should be in control, forcing yields up. But, the demand has also increased with pension funds, sovereign nations, and others vying for the same investments, driving prices down. Right now the demand is keeping yields low
4.     Demand for mortgages: Like any other products, mortgage companies are subject to the market place supply/demand curve. Mortgage companies and the mortgage departments at major banks don’t make money sitting on mortgages, they make money originating or selling mortgages. Therefore, if consumers aren’t lining up for the product, the price is going to drop. Right now, demand is very low, as home turnover is light, and refinancing is extremely low. Thus mortgage companies must drop the price to get the business.
5.     The Fed: The Federal Reserve can tighten or loosen money (and thereby affect interest rates) by changing the Fed Funds Rate, buying or selling Federal Reserve Assets. These two efforts by the Fed sometimes have immediate affects on other interest rates, but it is the least important in how it affects mortgages.

These five factors make clear why mortgage interest rates have remained low, and have even fallen in the last few weeks. What about the future? Let’s take a quick look at each of the above five factors.

1.     Bond movement seems unlikely. The economy is still moving up, but in an anemic way. If business picked up to 2.5 or 3% annual growth, bonds would likely increase yields.
2.     Inflation is non-existent. Even with “full employment,” there is no pressure on hourly wages. This may be because many in the labor force are underemployed in hours, skills, or both. There is no evidence of commodity inflation and oil/energy seems headed lower.
3.     Wealth appears to be growing and the options for great yields continue to be a chimera. The aging of most populations in the world and especially in the US would account for much of this wealth growth. It is also clear that home value increases and the stock market records are producing huge amounts of wealth that need reinvestment.
4.     Mortgage demand is unlikely to rebound. There are few existing homes for sale in most US markets and very little new construction. Most who would refinance to get lower rates have already done this. Refinancing for cash, consolidation, etc., seems to be at a very low ebb. That could create more demand in the future if homeowners decide to use some of the equity they’ve amassed.
5.     The Fed is promising to continue to tighten, and over time this has to have an effect on all interest rates. The Fed would like to see inflation at around 2% which would also likely impact current low interest rates. So far, however, the economy has been very resistant to the Fed’s efforts.

If you are planning to buy a home or investment property, and mortgage interest rates are a consideration, you probably have some time to get the super low rates of the past several years. As this is written, rates have dropped to 3.625% for 30 year and 3.250% for 15 year. Those rates are for a jumbo loan and an A+ borrower who is purchasing for occupancy.  If not a purchase, the rate may be 0.125% higher. 

Bill Rayman is more than a traditional mortgage broker. Bill is a financial consultant with regard to mortgages. He will help you get the very best mortgage for your specific needs. He is also extremely resourceful if you have issues that might typically get in the way of a mortgage. Call Bill today to discuss options. As a mortgage broker, Bill is only paid if you get your mortgage, so he’s going to work very hard to insure a positive result.

Bill Rayman Home Mortgages
12121 Wilshire Boulevard, Suite 350
Los Angeles, CA 90025
Phone: (424) 354-5325
https://www.guaranteedrate.com/loan-expert/billrayman

Monday, April 10, 2017

Should You Buy a Home in Los Angeles or Rent? 2017 Update


 

With Los Angeles Mortgage Rates Still at 4.15%, and Home Prices Still Increasing, Buying Is Still Better


2013
In 2013, we started following a typical Westside home worth $650,000. We now have data through 2017 and while every situation is not the same, the results are pretty clear in this analysis. Buying is better!
 According to Zillow.com the rental value of that home was $3150 a month in 2013.  The estimated mortgage was $2441 based on 20% down and 3.75% 30 year fixed mortgage.  Property taxes and insurance would add another $730.  Maintenance might be $500.  So total out of pocket was around $3700 in 2013.
The tax advantage in the 25% tax bracket would come in at around $800 month, so the net advantage to buying was around $250 a month that year. If the house was purchased in 2013, there would have been at least $6000 in closing costs. We’ll spread those over 3 years. That would result in another $166 per month.
Rent vs buy in 2013.  About even.
2014
Zillow says the house is now worth $795,000, for a gain of $145,000. Last year the interest was 3.75%.  Today interest would be 4.5%. Total monthly mortgage would be estimated at $3129 now vs $2441 a year ago. All of these estimates are from Zillow.com, and we can't totally rely on their numbers.  In fact, the rent number seems suspect, as it has dropped from $3150 to $3125.  Government statistics for cost of living specifically associated with rental of a primary residence showed a 2.7% increase in the LA area.  Even so, that would only boost the rent by $90.  My gut tells me that rents are up and that the 2.7% number might be more in line with reality.   If this was a new purchase, there would be a slight bias to the renter of around $300 a month. However, if the home was purchased in 2013, the owner just made $145,000. The renter could have put the 20% down payment in an investment and made 6% on the $130,000 or $7,800.
Rent vs buy in 2014. Cash flow benefit to the renter.  Wealth increase huge win for the buyer
2015
Zillow now says the house is worth $840,000. And increase of $190,000 over the last two years. The rent is up from $3150 to $4000 per month. Markets don’t always act like this, but the tenant would likely be subject to these increases and would now be paying $4000 for rent vs the $2700 they would still be paying for mortgage, property tax, insurance, and repairs if they had purchased in 2013. They would also have a $190,000 capital gain on their $130,000 down payment. The purchase in 2013 would have been a huge success. Of course this capital gain would be offset by costs of purchase and costs of sale if the increase was to be realized rather than just on paper. If we used 10% or $83,000 for that number, we are still $50,000 ahead by the end of year two. In other years this could have gone the other way.
The current mortgage based on a 20% down payment and 4% interest rate would be $3208 with another $900 for property taxes and insurance. Add in $500 for repairs and the total is approximately $4700. Tax savings would be $1000 using the same criteria as above. So the net cash cost per month is $3700 vs rent of $4000.
Of course, every house in every neighborhood will have different results, but Zillow has done an analysis by neighborhood that predicts how long it will take to break even on a purchase vs a rental. Their system is not very sophisticated and does not take into consideration appreciation.
2017
We skipped a year, but how is that same house doing in 2017. Zillow says that the house is now worth $970,000 and the rent is likely to be $4000.
For the owner who purchased in 2013, his out of pocket is now $2900. He has a capital gain of $320,000 which would be reduced by about $50,000 for real estate fees were he to sell. The gain would still be at least $270,000.
The renter who put his $130,000 into an investment returning 6% compounded would have made $34,122.
Owner out of pocket $2900 vs renter out of pocket $4000
Owner ROI $270,000 vs renter ROI $34,122
So, what about buying that home today? Is it still a good deal? With 20% of $194,000 down and a 4.15% mortgage, the monthly payment including taxes and insurance, would be $4700. Add in the $500 for maintenance and subtract the tax IRS advantage of $1200 per month and you have $4000 per month out of pocket, just about equal to the rental amount. The closing costs of $10,000 would result in a the buyer paying about $300 per month more than the renter in the first year. But by year three it is likely that the monthly rent would be up another few hundred dollars, and in year four the amortization of those closing costs would be over (based on our idea to amortize them over 3 years.)
After four years of running this experiment, and even with a supposedly overheated seller’s market in Los Angeles, it seems that buying just makes way more sense than renting. We can imagine scenarios where this would not be the case. The housing market is subject to downturns just like any market. It is possible to imagine this home dropping by $300,000 if there were a typical drop in market values like 1999 or 2008.
Even then, these markets correct, and over time the likelihood is that the home will continue its upward valuation curve. On the other hand the market may continue strong and deliver another $100,000 or so in appreciation over the next three years.
A major issue in the current market is whether you can even get a mortgage in Los Angeles.  We can help you with that.  A short complimentary conversation will allow us to give you plenty of direction on your eligibility and what you can afford.  Call Bill Rayman at 424-354-5325


New Contact Information for Bill Rayman
Bill Rayman Home Mortgage
12121 Wilshire Blvd
Suite 350
LA CA 90025

424-354-5325

bill@rate.com